PM Narendra Modi has been given more priority in state elections.

Associating Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the BJP’s performance in state elections can be misleading; Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been given more priority than local or regional leaders in state elections, although it has been repeatedly proven that BJP’s defeat in a state is due to the failure of regional BJP politics and politicians and Narendra Modi’s influence may not have won it; But Narendra Modi will play a decisive role in the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram: The phased voting process for the assembly elections of these five states has started from the 17th, which will continue till the 30th and the results will be declared on the 3rd of December. So can state assembly elections held before a general election in the country be termed as ‘semi finals’? The answer would be in the negative; Because, for the past two decades, the idea that the results of the Lok Sabha elections can be predicted from the results of state assembly elections has been repeatedly misconceived.

It is recalled that in 2003, the election results in some North Indian states almost assured the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government of a good performance and victory in the next general election, which ended in an unexpected defeat. Despite this, there is no doubt that the parties who have won the above five elections will consider it as a ‘semi-final’ and engage in interpretation and conceptualization efforts, and the political atmosphere of the country will begin to heat up amid the predominance of estimates, predictions and speculations ahead of the 2024 general elections. In that regard, a short discussion in this context seems relevant.

Analysts closely following these elections say that Shivlaraj Singh Chouhan (or his party BJP) who has been chief minister for two decades in Madhya Pradesh, an important state in the ‘Hindi heartland’, may have a specific ‘anti-incumbency factor’ or ‘long tenure’. Can’t do it in the face of massive opposition; But the citizens, tired of a prolonged unchanging regime, may want a change, which the Congress will take advantage of. They say that in such circumstances, the BJP has shown its political maturity by fielding eight Union Ministers and national-level leaders in the state assembly election fray and not presenting Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the next Chief Minister; In which the message is clear that this innovation approves the tiredness of the voters!

On the other hand, Congress Chief Minister Chehera Kamal Nath has tried to undermine BJP’s monopoly in this area by introducing an experienced politician in Madhya Pradesh with a soft stance of ‘soft Hinduism’; Because of this, in his election campaign, Congress Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s reference to opening the lock of Ram Duni in 1986 has been repeatedly raised. According to commentators, competition will be intense in Madhya Pradesh; But the chances of Congress taking power are high.

Similarly, the neighboring state of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, is likely to see success for the Congress due to the popularity of authoritarian Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and his success in presenting himself as a staunch Hindu. Both Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel, who are considered by many to be Congressmen, have tried to portray themselves as pro-Hindu, and to some extent even succeeded! However, according to commentators, Rajasthan and Telangana are more likely to face the ‘anti-incumbency factor’; In which the ruling parties in those two states are likely to lose power to Congress and Bharat Rashtra Samithi or ‘BRS’ respectively, BJP in Rajasthan and Congress in Telangana will gain.

Similarly, in the northeastern state of Mizoram, the issue of ‘Mizo identity’ has become more important to voters, and interpretations of the central government’s role in the context of the civil war in Manipur are likely to influence the election results there, which in the eyes of power center Delhi is a part of northeastern India.

It is revealed that during this election, a total of three trends have gained strength. The first is that the brand the BJP established as a values-based party is being eroded; The ‘Congressisation’ of the BJP is said to have been either by subverting elected opposition governments in various states or by promising massive free handouts (Rajasthan and Telangana) or creating caste-based vote banks (Scheduled Madigas in Telangana) to win votes.

Perceptions have become entrenched, alienating countless masses of BJP’s core supporters of value-based politics. Hence, BJP needs to focus more on maintaining its primacy. The second trend is that political parties in India can gain electoral success by being ‘pro-Muslim’; As ‘Trinamool Congress’ or ‘AP’ has done; But being labeled as ‘anti-Hindu’ has little hope of success.

It should act as a directional compass for the Congress. A third point is that linking Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the BJP’s performance in state elections can be misleading; Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been given more priority than local or regional leaders in state elections, although it has been repeatedly proven that BJP’s defeat in a state is due to the failure of regional BJP politics and politicians and Narendra Modi’s influence may not have won it; But Narendra Modi will play a decisive role in the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections.